Home Court/Ice Advantage in a 7-Game Series

As the NBA and NHL playoffs continue on, I am left wondering about the importance of home field and home ice advantage. Is it important? Does it make a difference? How great of a difference does it make?

The courts and rinks that teams play on are all the same size and made of the same substance. Since the playing surfaces are the same, what is it that gives the home team an advantage?

It is rare for a 7-game series to go the full seven with the home team winning every game. If home field/ice advantage is so important, why doesn’t the home team win more often?

Here is my hypothesis: Home field/ice advantage in the NBA and NHL becomes more important as the series progresses. For example, home court/ice is more important in Game 5 than in Game 2.

The road team for Games 1 and 2 is always looking for a split of those two games. The road team for Games 3 and 4 is also looking for a split. If that happens, then Games 5, 6 and 7 are huge. Losing a home game in 5, 6, or 7 almost certainly means losing the series.

Here is an example: Minnesota and Colorado met in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs earlier this month. Games 1 and 2 were in Minnesota. 3 and 4 were in Colorado. The two teams earned a split of Games 1 and 2, and 3 and 4. The series went back to Minnesota for Game 5, tied at 2.

Minnesota was the better team in Game 5, getting a boost from their home fans. Colorado, however, won the game. The series went back to Colorado for Game 6, and the Avalanche won it to win the series.

It’s hard to beat the same team two times in a row. Winning Games 1 and 2 is hard for the home team. Usually, if the home team wins both 1 and 2, the away team struggles to win their first two games at home (3 and 4). That’s why what Atlanta has done against Boston in the NBA playoffs is so impressive. Boston won Games 1 and 2 at home. Atlanta came back to win Games 3 and 4 at their home arena.

In the Utah-Houston series in the NBA, Utah won the first two games on Houston’s home court. That was, I thought, the end of that series. Houston did win Game 3 in Utah, but, as expected, Utah won Game 4. Game 5 went back to Houston, and the Rockets got the win. Now, Game 6 is next. It’s on Utah’s floor. They lead the series 3-2. Conventional wisdom says that Utah will win the game and the series.

There are always exceptions. The Philadelphia-Washington series in the NHL is one. The road team won Games 5, 6 and 7 in that one. But that is so rare.

If the two teams in a series are not evenly matched, then forget about it. The better team will win. But if two teams are even, and they are set to play a 7-game series, sometimes the only thing that gives one team an edge is home court/ice. Fans do play a role in games. The energy they provide is limitless. Their reactions to calls and non-calls does have an effect on officials because officials are human.

Having home court/ice also means, for most players, that they get to be at home. Literally. There’s something to be said for sleeping in your own bed, seeing and spending time with your family, and driving some familiar roads to get to the arena. It’s comfortable. There’s less to think about.

If your team is still in the playoffs, don’t worry so much about home court/ice advantage, at least not during the first four games of the series. If they lose one at home and win one on the road, and the series is tied at 2 after four games, then your team is fine…as long as they have home court/ice advantage.

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